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04.12.2024 12:42 PM
AUD/USD: 分析與預測
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今天,在澳大利亞公佈較弱的 GDP 數據後,澳元遭受積極拋售。此外,這些數據支持了市場對澳大利亞儲備銀行(RBA)降息的預期,這使得澳元在短期內的復蘇變得不太可能。

此外,對中國脆弱經濟復甦的擔憂、美國當選總統唐納·特朗普可能實施的關稅,以及對貿易戰的恐懼進一步限制了澳元的增長。交易者必須等待美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的演講中對未來降息的信號以及美國關鍵經濟報告,以觀察具體的市場動向並進行新的交易。

從技術角度來看,澳元兌美元匯率跌破 0.6440-0.6435 水平表示突破了過去兩週維持的短期交易區間。此外,日線圖上的振盪指標仍然堅定地處於負值區域,且距離超賣區域尚遠。這表明 AUD/USD 這一貨幣對最小阻力的路徑是向下的,支持進一步下跌的前景。即期價格下跌至 0.6400 的關鍵水平以下並重新測試 0.6350-0.6345 的全年低點的可能性正在增加,該低點上一次出現在八月。

另一方面,任何高於 0.6500 的關鍵心理水平的顯著復甦都將面臨強大阻力,並在 0.6535 的供應區附近形成上限。穩定的動能超越這一點可能會觸發空頭回補反彈,讓 AUD/USD 貨幣對回到 0.6600 的關鍵整數,而該點接近 200 日和 50 日簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 的匯聚處。若這些水平被明確突破,短期趨勢可能會偏向看多情緒。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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