empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
04.12.2024 12:46 AM
EUR/USD Growth is Corrective
Open trading account Open demo account

Inflationary pressure in the Eurozone remains stable. In November, the Consumer Price Index stood at 2.3% year-on-year, and the core index at 2.8%, both in line with forecasts but higher than in October.

The market reacted calmly to the rise in inflation, as part of this increase was attributed to base effects and does not indicate a return of inflationary momentum. At the same time, the economy shows clear signs of weakness, with the PMI for manufacturing in November at 45.2, significantly below the expansion threshold.

These indicators are important in shaping the European Central Bank's strategy moving forward. Inflation has not yet returned to the target range, so interest rates must remain restrictive. However, the weak economic conditions call for easing financial conditions. The ECB faces two opposing tasks and must strike the right balance between them.

The spread between medium-term inflation swaps in euros and dollars continues to widen. As long as this trend persists, the euro will remain under pressure.

This image is no longer relevant

The ECB and the Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions in the coming weeks. Market expectations for both events have been relatively stable recently. The ECB is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points, with a smaller likelihood of a 50 basis point cut. In contrast, the Fed's forecast suggests a similar 25 basis point cut with a slight chance of no reduction. As long as this imbalance exists, the euro will likely remain under pressure. Friday's U.S. jobs report is expected to provide additional clarity. Based on this data, the market will adjust its Fed rate forecast, likely resulting in significant movements in the EUR/USD pair.

The latest CFTC report revealed that speculative short positions on the euro continue to grow slowly. The estimated price shows no signs of reversal.

This image is no longer relevant

Weeks ago, we noted that despite being oversold, the fundamental reasons for the EUR/USD decline remain intact. The rebound from the 1.0334 low is technical, and no new factors support a bullish reversal. The euro may still rise slightly, with the nearest resistance levels at 1.0602 and 1.0660, but reaching these levels should not be seen as a sign of accelerating growth if breached. Instead, they should be viewed as opportunities for another wave of selling once the correction ends. The 1.0334 low appears strong, and we consider a break below this level unlikely before the end of the year.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
Analysis for EUR/USD on April 16, 2025 The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has shifted into a bullish formation. I think there's little doubt that this transformation was caused solely
Chin Zhao
18:56 2025-04-16 +02:00
1630
Wave analysis
Analysis for GBP/USD on April 16, 2025 The wave structure of the GBP/USD pair has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD
Chin Zhao
18:53 2025-04-16 +02:00
1270
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

No Progress in Negotiations

This week, the European Union and the United States made no significant progress in resolving trade disputes, as officials from President Donald Trump's administration indicated that most of the U.S
Jakub Novak 18:48 2025-04-16 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to draw investor attention, particularly in times of heightened uncertainty in financial markets. Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing uncertainty in trade relations between the U.S. and China makes gold
Irina Yanina 11:50 2025-04-16 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair is attracting new sellers today, showing signs of weakness under current economic conditions, driven by several key factors. Weak U.S. Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks
Irina Yanina 11:41 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Time works against market

Time is not on Donald Trump's side, nor the side of the US stock market. The longer the uncertainty surrounding White House policy drags on, the more likely it becomes
Marek Petkovich 11:39 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Confrontation Between the U.S. and China Will Negatively Impact Markets (Potential for Renewed Declines in #NDX and Litecoin)

Market optimism, fueled by Donald Trump's active manipulation of the tariff narrative, was short-lived. Traders remain focused on the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China following the U.S. Department
Pati Gani 11:34 2025-04-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 16? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, but some important reports will be released. However, the current key issue is not the reports' significance but how the market will
Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-04-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 16: The Pound Sees No Limits

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. Although this rally was not as strong as last week's surge, the British pound kept rising steadily, with barely
Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-04-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 16: The Euro Stalls Awaiting New Tariffs

The EUR/USD currency pair mostly remained flat throughout Tuesday. Although both pairs are in an upward trend, the euro and the British pound have recently not been trading in sync
Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-04-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Gloomy ZEW Indices Put Pressure on the Euro

The euro reacted negatively to the ZEW indices released on Tuesday, which reflected growing pessimism in the European business environment. The key indicators dropped into negative territory for the first
Irina Manzenko 01:08 2025-04-16 UTC+2

The Euro Scared Itself with Its Own Momentum

The euro's surge to the area of three-year highs became possible thanks to Germany's fiscal stimulus, Donald Trump's trade policy, and a capital outflow from North America into Europe. When
Marek Petkovich 01:08 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
Analysis for GBP/USD on April 16, 2025
18:53 2025-04-16
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--4
No Progress in Negotiations
18:48 2025-04-16
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 12:00 UTC--4
Analysis for EUR/USD on April 16, 2025
18:56 2025-04-16
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 16th (U.S. Session)
18:43 2025-04-16
Forecast
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 16th (U.S. Session)
18:46 2025-04-16
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.