empty
14.03.2025 01:04 PM
Donald Trump Is Just Getting Started

This image is no longer relevant

The 24-hour chart wave structure for #SPX appears relatively clear. The first key observation is the global five-wave structure, which is so extensive that it doesn't even fit into the terminal window at the smallest scale. In simple terms, U.S. stock indices have been rising for a very long time. However, we know that trends alternate. At this point, wave 5 within wave 5 appears to have completed. The index made four unsuccessful attempts to break the 6093 level, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci from wave 4. In my view, we are likely to see a corrective wave sequence soon. The U.S. stock market is overheated, and more analysts are starting to discuss the possibility of a bubble.

Switching to the 4-hour chart, we can observe a completed complex corrective structure (a-b-c-d-e) and an upward structure resembling an a-b-c pattern. This suggests that a new downward wave has begun forming, with its first wave strongly resembling an impulse. Based on this, I expect an upward wave 2 or b, followed by a renewed decline. At the moment, I would lean on the daily chart's wave structure, which points to a prolonged S&P 500 downturn.

The #SPX index continues to decline, now resembling a Bitcoin-style crash. But is that surprising? The U.S. dollar is also in freefall, and Bitcoin is barely holding on to avoid sinking even lower. The reason behind the chaos in the markets is clear—and it's singular: Donald Trump.

Trump's tariffs could trigger a recession in the U.S. economy, but the U.S. president has no interest in what happens to the stock market. His objectives lie elsewhere—primarily expansionist and protectionist policies. Trump wants to bring manufacturing back to America, secure better trade deals with every country, acquire Greenland, control the Panama Canal, end the war in Ukraine, and weaken China's global standing. The list goes on—but this is Trump's agenda, not America's. Has anyone in the U.S. ever previously advocated for reclaiming the Panama Canal?

Given all of this, Trump is indifferent to how much the economy slows or how much stock indices collapse. Investors recognize this and are redirecting capital into safe-haven assets or economies that are not actively destabilizing their own markets. For this reason, I believe that S&P 500's decline will continue.

This image is no longer relevant

Key Takeaways

Based on my analysis of #SPX, I conclude that the index has completed its upward trend segment. I recommend focusing on the 6125 level and Trump's policies. Trump is implementing measures that threaten the stability of the U.S. economy and corporations (trade wars, tariffs, and import duties), increasing the likelihood of a new bearish trend. The U.S. stock market bubble is stretched to its limit.

The 4-hour chart suggests one more upward wave before a renewed decline, while the 24-hour chart indicates the formation of a longer-term downtrend.

On a higher timeframe, the wave structure becomes even clearer—a distinct five-wave formation, with a five-wave sequence within the fifth wave. This final fifth wave may be nearing completion, implying that traders should prepare for a long and complex correction, which may have already begun.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are difficult to trade and often subject to revisions.
  2. If there is uncertainty about the market's direction, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in price movement. Always use Stop Loss orders for risk management.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other methods of technical analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Stock Market on March 14th: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Indexes Continue to Decline

Futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ stock indices continued their significant decline, returning to a bearish scenario.Asian stocks, along with futures on U.S. and European stock indices, rose during

Jakub Novak 13:01 2025-03-14 UTC+2

US stock market: NASDAQ and SP500 going through correction, 10% down from their historic highs

S&P500 Markt update on March 14 Snapshot of benchmark US stock indices on Thursday: Dow -1.3%, NASDAQ -2%, S&P 500 -1.4%, S&P 500 at 5,521, range 5,400 - 6,000

Jozef Kovach 10:53 2025-03-14 UTC+2

S&P 500 Forecast for March 14, 2025

Yesterday, the S&P 500 index reached its target support level of 5516, which corresponds to the peak observed on June 20, 2024. This level also aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci

Laurie Bailey 03:53 2025-03-14 UTC+2

US stock market groping for support

S&P500 Market update on 13.03 Snapshot of benchmark US stock indices on Wednesday: Dow -0.2%, NASDAQ +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.5%, S&P 500 at 5,599, range 5,400 – 6,000 The S&P

Jozef Kovach 10:17 2025-03-13 UTC+2

Stock Market on March 13: SP500 and NASDAQ Gains Were Short-Lived

Futures for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices declined again following yesterday's unexpected U.S. inflation data, which revealed a slowdown in price pressures that contradicted economists' forecasts. Asian stocks also

Jakub Novak 08:28 2025-03-13 UTC+2

US market experiencing strong correction

S&P 500 Overview for March 12 The US market is experiencing a strong correction. US major indices on Tuesday: the Dow -1.1%, the NASDAQ -0.2%, the S&P 500 -0.8%

Jozef Kovach 11:36 2025-03-12 UTC+2

Stock Market on March 12th: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Hit Another Low

Futures on the S&P 500 index rose by 0.2% after losing 0.76% at the end of the previous day, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.3% after closing at -0.18%. Stocks

Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-03-12 UTC+2

Trump's meeting with Wall Street leaders set to stabilize market

Amid a sharp decline in US stock markets, President Donald Trump will meet with chief executives of major companies today as industry leaders try to navigate the uncertainty surrounding widespread

Jakub Novak 13:32 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Black Monday on Wall Street. US stocks lose $4 trillion in market capitalization

S&P500 Market review on March 11 US stock market suffers a crash. $4 trillion lost, but game not over yet Performance of benchmark stock indices on Monday: Dow: -2.1% NASDAQ

Jozef Kovach 12:14 2025-03-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.