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17.03.2025 06:32 PM
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – March 17th (U.S. Session)
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.68 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and remained out of the market.

Later today, the focus will shift to U.S. retail sales data, which serves as a key indicator of the U.S. economy's health. Investors and analysts closely monitor these figures, as consumer activity is the primary driver of economic growth. If retail sales increase, it could support the U.S. dollar by signaling economic resilience and potential inflationary pressures.

In addition to retail sales, traders will also focus on:

  • Empire Manufacturing Index, which, despite its lesser importance, provides insights into the manufacturing sector in New York State. A reading above zero indicates expansion, while a negative reading signals contraction.
  • NAHB Housing Market Index, which reflects homebuilder sentiment and serves as a leading indicator for the housing market.

These reports will help form a comprehensive view of the current U.S. economic landscape.

For intraday trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

This image is no longer relevant

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY at 148.64 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 149.18. At 149.18, I plan to exit long positions and open short trades, anticipating a 30-35 point pullback. The expected upward movement aligns with a corrective bullish trend.

Important! Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if the price tests 148.29 twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside, with expected targets at 148.64 and 149.18.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 148.29 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick decline. The target is 147.79, where I will exit short positions and open long trades for a 20-25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pair may arise at any moment.

Important! Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if the price tests 148.64 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward, with expected targets at 148.29 and 147.79.

This image is no longer relevant

Chart Key:

  • Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
  • Thick green line – Expected target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
  • Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
  • Thick red line – Expected target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
  • MACD Indicator – Always consider overbought and oversold conditions when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Making trading decisions requires extreme caution. Avoid entering the market before key fundamental reports, as sudden price swings can lead to significant losses.

If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

For successful trading, you need a clear and structured trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on short-term price movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Jakub Novak,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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