empty
05.11.2024 12:49 PM
EUR/USD. November 5th. Lagarde's Speech Could Help the Bulls

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair returned to the 161.8% corrective level at 1.0873. A rebound from this level could signal a reversal in favor of the euro and a resumption of growth towards the resistance zone at 1.0929–1.0946. However, a close below 1.0873 would support the U.S. dollar, favoring a continued decline towards the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave (September 25-30) failed to break the high of the previous wave, while the most recent downward wave breached the lows of the previous three waves. Thus, a new "bearish" trend is forming. A corrective wave is now beginning, but the bulls have already lost their initiative in the market. It will take a significant amount of effort to regain it, which may not be achievable in the near future.

The news flow was light on Monday, but this week holds numerous critical events that are likely to strongly influence trader sentiment. Today, the ISM Services Index is set to be released in the U.S. It is worth noting that the manufacturing index and the Nonfarm Payrolls report both came in below traders' expectations. Although it's hard to predict the ISM Services Index based on these reports, a negative trend seems to be emerging. Bulls might attempt a comeback today if they receive the necessary support. Additionally, monitor Christine Lagarde's speech closely. Recently, the market's expectations regarding the ECB's rate decisions have shifted slightly, but recent inflation reports from the EU and Germany show that there's still a way to go. This backdrop could support the euro, especially if the ECB slows monetary easing.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair closed above the 50.0% corrective level at 1.0872, suggesting a potential rise towards the next Fibonacci level at 61.8%, or 1.0935. The bullish divergence on the CCI indicator also provided support for the bulls. A rebound from the 1.0935 level would favor the U.S. dollar and indicate a resumption of the downward trend. However, this week's substantial news background is likely to impact the EUR/USD pair significantly.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, speculators opened 6,154 long positions and 27,934 short positions. The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders shifted to "bearish." The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 159,000, while short positions stand at 209,000.

For the eighth consecutive week, major players have been shedding their positions in the euro. In my opinion, this suggests the onset of a new "bearish" trend or at least a strong global correction. The primary driver for the dollar's decline—expectations of FOMC monetary easing—has been priced in, and the market no longer has strong reasons to abandon the dollar en masse. While new reasons may emerge over time, a stronger U.S. dollar appears more likely. Technical analysis also indicates the beginning of a "bearish" trend, leading me to prepare for a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

  • Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech (14:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Services PMI (14:45 UTC)
  • U.S. – ISM Services PMI (15:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for November 5 includes at least two highly significant entries, likely to moderately influence market sentiment today.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Exercise caution with trades this week. The U.S. elections and the FOMC meeting may cause significant volatility and unpredictable movements. A rebound from 1.0873 could favor buying positions with a target range of 1.0929–1.0946 on the hourly chart.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.1139–1.0603 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.